Wed, 08 Feb 2023

Where the Bills stand in the AFC Playoff picture for Week 13

Buffalo Bills
04 Dec 2022, 22:15 GMT+10

Alec White

The Buffalo Bills are fresh off their first AFC East win of the season following Thursday night's 24-10 victory over New England and will now have a few extra days of rest heading into next weekend at home against the Jets.

The Bills (9-3) will roll into that matchup on a three-game winning streak and could potentially be in first place in both the AFC East and the AFC as a whole, depending on how the rest of the Week 13 slate shakes out.

We're here to breakdown all the potential scenarios for the Bills' playoff chances using the New York Times Playoff Simulator. Here's the latest odds for Buffalo.

Chance to make playoffs: 99%

Chance to win division: 70% (Miami at 22%)

Chance to have AFC No. 1 seed: 37% (Kansas City at 48%)

Chance to host AFC Wild Card round: 33%

Chance to reach Super Bowl: 16%

With that in mind, here are teams Bills fans should root for this weekend to increase Buffalo's chances in those categories.

Matchups with AFC East Teams

New York Jets (7-4) at Minnesota Vikings (9-2) - Sunday at 1 p.m. on CBS

The situation: The Jets inserted Mike White as the starting QB last week and had successful results with a resounding 31-10 over the Bears. Jets HC Robert Saleh said White will start again this week against the Vikings. Meanwhile, Minnesota is coming off a 33-26 Thanksgiving win over the Patriots. The Vikings are favored by 3 points.

Who to root for: Root for the Vikings. The Jets are third in the AFC East behind Buffalo and Miami but a win in Week 13 would keep them breathing down the Bills' neck in the division race ahead of next week's tilt.

Miami Dolphins (8-3) at San Francisco 49ers (7-4) - Sunday at 4:05 p.m. on FOX

The situation: The Dolphins have five wins in a row, but all have come against teams with sub-.500 records. The 49ers will be the first team with a winning record the Dolphins have faced since Oct. 16 when they lost at home to the Vikings. San Francisco is favored by 4 points.

Who to root for: Root for the 49ers. A Dolphins loss would give Buffalo the lead in the AFC East for the first time since Week 10.

AFC East Scenarios

Scenario 1: Dolphins & Jets both WIN - Buffalo's odds to win division fall from 70% to 59%.

Scenario 2: Dolphins win & Jets lose - Buffalo's odds to win division fall from 70% to 64%.

Scenario 3: Jets win & Dolphins lose - Buffalo's odds to win division rise from 70% to 72%.

Scenario 4: Jets & Dolphins both LOSE - Buffalo's odds to win division rise from 70% to 79%.

Matchup to watch involving other AFC teams

Kansas City Chiefs (9-2) and Cincinnati Bengals (7-4) - Sunday at 4:25 p.m. on CBS

The situation: The Chiefs haven't lost since Week 6 against the Bills but have their toughest test since then with a road game against the Bengals. Cincinnati beat KC both times last season but the Bengals are a 2-point home underdog in this one. The good news for the Bengals is that WR Ja'Marr Chase is expected to return after missing 4 games with a hip injury.

Who to root for: Root for the Bengals. While a Bengals win would make the top of the AFC more crowded, it would help jump the Bills to the No. 1 seed in the conference due to their tie-breaker over the Chiefs. The Bills and Bengals are set to face each other in Week 17.

Scenarios:

Chiefs Win - Buffalo's odds for AFC No. 1 seed drop from 37% to 26%, KC rises from 48% to 67%.

Bengals Win - Buffalo's odds for AFC No. 1 seed rise from 37% to 44%, KC drops from 48% to 35%.

Best case scenario (all games included)

IF the Chiefs, Dolphins and Jets all LOSE, the Bills would have a 77% chance to win the division and a 46% chance to get the No. 1 seed.

Worst case scenario (all games included)

IF the Chiefs, Dolphins and Jets all WIN, the Bills would have a 59% chance to win the division and a 26% chance to get the No. 1 seed.

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